Below are lists with the strength scores of the strongest / most bullish stocks on the StockTwits stream over the last week and month (ending 4/29/14).
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores of the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ended 4/8/14. Notice that neither the weekly or the monthly list had 25 stocks. This is another illustration of the damage done to sentiment in the most active stocks on StockTwits. Another thing to notice is the momentum stocks have been replaced by companies that many perceive as safety stocks.
Last weekend I mentioned that the stock market was undergoing rotation, however, no real fear was associated with the selling. This week we have a market that looks like it may have started some broad based selling, but again without much fear from market participants. During the week most of the indicators that I follow strengthened. Then came Friday, which showed an entirely different character than I’ve seen in a long time. It reversed the gains in our internal indicators and also created some concerning chart patterns in individual stocks. As you know, I try to give a few things each week to watch as the most important clue to the direction of the market. This week what I’ll be watching most closely is the action of the stocks that had held up while momentum, bio tech, and social media stocks were being ravaged by selling. On Friday, many of these stocks were sold aggressively along with stocks that have been weak since the first of March. Google (GOOG) is
Below are charts with the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on StockTwits for the week and month ending 4/1/14.
The consolidation warning issued for Procter & Gamble (PG) on 12/17/13 has ended. Note that this signal doesn’t have an associated positive divergence from smoothed sentiment. That suggests that the consolidation may not quite be over. However, when consolidation warnings end the stocks generally resume their primary trend so PG could turn up in the next week or so.
Below are the bullish intensity scores for the most bullish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 10/29/13.
I’m sure you’re all aware of the profit taking in many of the momentum stocks. As the profit taking is happening market breadth is improving. So where is the money going? Just where we suspected it would go. Into stocks that have been in multi-month consolidations. Below are charts of many of the stocks that consolidated across the summer and are now being bought aggressively. Stocks like these will most likely provide the fuel for a continued rally. One thing to note is that many of these stocks are defensive or have large dividends. Although I believe the market can still go higher, we may be seeing the first signs of rotation to safety ahead of an intermediate term top. Here are some sample charts in no particular order.
I’ve often talked about looking at your own portfolio to get a feel for the underlying market. Over the weekend I noticed a pattern repeating in a wide variety of the stocks I actively track that can provide an indication of where the market is likely to go next. There are several stocks across almost every sector that are currently painting multi-month consolidation patterns. Many of these patterns consist of fairly wide and loose sideways or down patterns where the difference between peaks and valleys are in the 10% or more range. These wide consolidations show the growing uncertainty among investors as they have been reluctant to push a broad cross section of stocks to higher prices. At the same time many of the stocks aren’t being pushed substantially lower. At this point the stocks are still mostly consolidating, but their performance over the next month or so will likely show the market’s hand. If they start to break higher the market will go with them. If they break down
Below are charts of the bearish intensity scores for the most bearish stocks on Twitter for the week and month ending 8/20/13.