Over the past week, my core indicators bounced around again. The only significant thing I’m seeing is some weakness in my measures of the economy, but I suspect this category won’t have much impact on the market in the near term. Instead, focus on the tax plan will continue to drive investor’s purchases and sentiment.
Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly improved. Most significant is that my measures of market strength have now moved above zero. This changes the core portfolio allocations as follows: Long / Cash portfolio: 100% long Long / Short portfolio: 100% long high beta stocks Volatility Hedged portfolio: 100% long since 11/11/2016 Another thing of note is that we’ve been seeing broad based buying of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) again. If the ratio between the SPX Equal Weighted Index (SPXEW) and SPX can get back above its 20 week moving average it will be a very healthy sign. Since the first of the year, investors have favored mega cap stocks. We want to see the smaller stocks in SPX rallying faster than the mega caps as it will indicate broad based buying and increased tolerance for risk. Add to that, SPX looks like it’s now got a clear break above 2500 and we’ve got the recipe for a rally. Conclusion It looks
I’m starting to see a few rays of hope from various measures of breadth that could provide the fuel for a broad based rally. The first comes from the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). It finally looks like it wants to play catch up with the other major indexes. Another indicator that is showing some strength is the NYSE Cumulative Advance / Decline line (NYAD). It has broken higher with the market this week. One last small ray of hope comes from the ratio between SPX and SPX Equal Weight. It turned up this week. If it can continue to rise it will help the market rise as money moves into large caps (and away from mega caps). Unfortunately, there is a looming cloud over the ray of hope. My only category of core indicators that rose this week was measures of risk. All of the others fell. This is discouraging because it could indicate that the long term trend is getting much closer to ending. Conclusion Things
We finally got a good breakout above the 2400 level on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), but my core market health indicators aren’t believing it. Most of them fell this week, which doesn’t bode well for a sustained rally. That’s not to say the market can’t chop upwards, but without underlying technical strength don’t expect huge gains. One thing I’ve been highlighting over the past few months is the ratio between SPX and equal weighted SPX. This ratio is telling us that mega cap stocks are where the money continues to flow. When this happens, the best the market can do is marginal new highs that are usually followed by chop. That’s what I expect to see until the ratio can get back above its 20 week moving average. Conclusion We’ve got a break to new highs, but underlying technical indicators aren’t confirming the rally. Expect hard fought gains followed by choppy market action.
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around a bit. They are mostly showing short term weakness, but longer term strength. This usually means the market should resolve higher. One thing of particular note is that my core measures of risk are deteriorating rapidly. This isn’t a normal occurrence near all time highs. The last time this occurred was in February of 2015 which was followed by several months of choppy movement, then a decent decline. This isn’t a prediction, just an observation and something to watch. Another thing I’m watching closely is various measures of breadth. The most significant at the moment is the ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). When it is below its 20 week moving average the market usually chops around (at the least). This is exactly what we’ve seen since it fell below the line in early February. Another measure of breadth comes from the number of bullish stocks on the
Over the past few weeks, my core market health indicators improved significantly, with the exception of my measures of the economy. The strength seen suggests that the market wants to rally. Although my measures of trend and strength are still negative, they are on a trajectory to turn positive within a week or two. One thing of note is that the current strength is coming from mega cap stocks. This isn’t a healthy condition. Normally, a healthy rally will have broad participation from the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). This isn’t happening. Look at the ratio between SPX equal weighted (SPXEW). It is still falling. Bulls want to see this ratio turn up if the market breaks higher. Another sign of poor participation in the market comes from the percent of SPX stocks above their 200 day moving average. As SPX is approaching new highs, the percent of SPX stocks above their 200 dma is falling. This increases the risk that a breakout rally will be
The ratio between S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is giving a small warning sign that, at the least, we’ll see some sideways consolidation over the next few weeks. As you can see from the chart below, a dip below the 20 week moving average generally results in consolidation. It often precedes pull backs of 5% to 15%. The reason it occurs is that “smaller” big cap stocks are being sold as money is being moved into mega cap stocks. It takes more money to push a mega cap stock higher than it does to push a “smaller” large cap stock higher. It also takes less selling to drive the smaller stocks lower. Thus, mere rotation from large to mega caps creates a drag on SPX. At this point we don’t know if the rotation is just portfolio managers rebalancing or the start of a flight to safety so stay alert. Over the past week, my core market health indicators mostly strengthened, but a few
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finally broke out of its recent range and moved above 2300. That move didn’t bring a strong response from my core market health indicators. Instead, they bounced around this week. They’re all still positive, but some of them are showing weakness that could turn them negative without a continued rally. An example of an indicator that is barely holding on is the ratio between the SPX equal weight index (SPXEW) and SPX. When this indicator is below its 20 week moving average it tells us that money is moving into mega cap stocks (which is often a flight to safety). Healthy markets have broad based buying of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Right now, we’re seeing a slight increase, but not the strong move higher generally associated with big rallies. Conclusion All the indicators are still positive, but could quickly move lower if the market doesn’t continue to rally. This is a time to keep a close eye on the market.
Since the US election in November, the market has had broad participation as evidenced by a strong relationship between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). During the month of December, however, SPXEW didn’t keep up with SPX. The ratio between the two fell sharply as both small and large cap stocks stalled, while at the same time mega cap stocks gained support. Now, the ratio is turning back up in an apparent resumption of the widespread buying. We can dig a little deeper into what stocks are getting the most attention by looking at the most bullish stocks on Twitter over the last two months, one month, and one week. Since the US election the most bullish stocks are across several industries. During December, the list gravitated toward more technology and health care. Over the past week, the list is once again widening in the number of industries listed. This is a condition we want to see going forward as evidence of widespread
Over the past week, my core market health indicators collapsed. They are all moving quickly toward zero. Most notably, is my core measures of risk. They are very close to going negative. In addition to my core measures, breadth measures are starting to warn as well. The bullish percent index (BPSPX), which tracks the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have bullish point and figure charts, has fallen below 60%. When this occurs the odds of a 10% decline (from current levels) increases substantially. Especially if my market risk indicator signals. Currently, two of four components of that indicator are warning. However, the other two are a long way away from a signal. I suspect it would take a quick fall through 2100 on SPX to create a warning. Another breadth indicator that is warning is the percent of stocks in SPX that are below their 200 day moving average. It is also below 60%. I’m sure you’ve all noticed that small cap stocks have broken