Below are the stocks with the highest intensity (volume and scores) on Twitter for both the past week and past month.
Above are the stocks with the highest intensity scores on Twitter over the last week. Below are the monthly numbers.
Above are the stocks with the most Bearish intensity on Twitter over the last week. Below are the monthly numbers.
The stocks in the chart above have the highest total Twitter Intensity scores. Below are the Monthly scores.
I wanted to do just a quick update today on the fight between the bulls and the bears on Twitter that we mentioned over the weekend. Twitter Sentiment for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a daily basis took a dip below zero again today even as the market moved substantially higher. It was still close to zero at -5, but not normal on a good rally day. This caused smoothed sentiment to break its confirming trend line. We take this as our first warning that the current rally may stall. It does not mean that a correction has begun, but it does tell us that traders and investors don’t like the break above 1500 and many of them are selling into it. This should at least cause some headwinds. Our next warning of a more serious correction would occur if smoothed sentiment drops below zero as that would signal that the negative sentiment and selling has occurred over several days. In the past this has often been enough to
Our core market indicators continued to improve this week allowing us to increase our long exposure and reduce our hedge. We are currently 70% long and 30% short. The increase was fairly rapid as it appears more market participants are joining this rally. The long portion of the portfolio consists of stocks we want to own due to many factors including; individual company growth prospects, value, and beta. Our current short is simply a short of the S&P 500 Index. The current hedge ratio is .43. The green lines on the chart above represent us adding longs to our portfolio and reducing shorts. The yellow lines represent increasing short positions and decreasing our portfolio of long stocks. The red line represents aggressive hedging with instruments like puts, volatility, or actively managed short funds.
Our internal indicators of core market strength improved enough today to allow us to add more exposure to the market. We are now 40% long and 60% cash. In the following weeks we’ll continue to add exposure if our core market indicators continue to rise. We’ll raise cash if market conditions deteriorate. On the chart below our purchases of additional longs are represented by the green lines. The yellow lines represent selling stock and raising cash.
Our core indicators strengthened enough today to increase our exposure to the market to 20%. We’re 80% cash and 20% long in our Long/Cash strategy. We’re dipping our toes in the water as the underlying strength in the market could propel the market higher. The yellow lines on the chart represent raising cash and the green lines on the chart represent buying stocks (by lowering our cash position).