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Twitter Top 10 Portfolio

Every Tuesday I post a list of stocks with the highest bullish intensity in trader’s tweets.  The list is comprised of stocks that a lot of people are excited about on Twitter so they have very high bullish sentiment scores.  So what happens if you simply buy the most bullish stocks on Twitter?  First of all, let me specify that I’m not recommending this as a strategy.  This is just an illustration.

Since the first of the year I’ve been tracking a mechanical investing strategy that buys the top ten bullish stocks over the past month.  I’ll call it the “Twitter Top 10 Portfolio”. The list is created on the first Friday of every month and I use Friday’s closing prices for buying and selling. Now that I’ve got three months of history I thought you might like to see the results.  First is a chart of performance comparing the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio against the S&P 500 Index. Below that I’ve listed the stocks it would have owned each month.  Note: The March totals have been updated to include Friday’s closing prices.

Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Performance

As you can see the portfolio has out performed over this very short bullish period.  The out performance comes from catching a lottery ticket or two each month without too many blow ups.  This is consistent with the way most mechanical investing strategies that I’ve seen work.  Generally, mechanical stock screens tend to give a list of stocks with a higher probability of advancing than just throwing darts at a random list.  The obvious down side to mechanical investing is that you make trades on a specific date (you’re not buying dips in an uptrend) and you’re buying with very little information about the company.

What I’m personally interested to see is how this portfolio performs in a sustained down trend.  Specifically, does it get crushed like most momentum strategies do or does it find stocks that are out performing the market?  Will it find stocks that are showing a positive divergence from the rest of the stock market before durable lows?  Only time will tell.

Start Date Symbol Shares Start Price Start Total End Price End Total % Gain / Loss
1/4/2013 $BAC 825 12.11 9990.75 11.71 9660.75 -3.30%
$ORCL 289 34.61 10002.29 36.2 10461.80 4.59%
$BBY 826 12.11 10002.86 16.11 13306.86 33.03%
$BIDU 95 104.65 9941.75 108.61 10317.95 3.78%
$MCD 111 89.85 9973.35 95.95 10650.45 6.79%
$CRM 59 169.61 10006.99 175.06 10328.54 3.21%
$FCX 282 35.49 10008.18 35.73 10075.86 0.68%
$NKE 189 52.88 9994.32 53.7 10149.30 1.55%
$INTC 472 21.16 9987.52 21.35 10077.20 0.90%
$UPS 130 76.57 9954.10 79.97 10396.10 4.44%
Cash 137.89 137.89
Totals 100000.00 105562.70 5.56%
2/1/2013 $YHOO 535 19.76 10571.60 21.94 11737.90 11.03%
$EBAY 185 57.21 10583.85 54.9 10156.50 -4.04%
$IBM 51 205.18 10464.18 202.91 10348.41 -1.11%
$LNKD 85 123.82 10524.70 170.46 14489.10 37.67%
$SBUX 186 56.86 10575.96 54.87 10205.82 -3.50%
$QCOM 158 66.73 10543.34 66.3 10475.40 -0.64%
$KORS 190 55.72 10586.80 59.23 11253.70 6.30%
$PCLN 15 685.56 10283.40 695.62 10434.30 1.47%
$UPS 130 79.97 10396.10 82.87 10773.10 3.63%
$SINA 187 56.52 10569.24 51 9537.00 -9.77%
Cash 463.56 463.53
Totals 105562.73 109874.76 4.08%

 

Note: HNZ was skipped due to a buyout offer in place
3/1/2013 $LNKD 85 170.46 14489.10 172.77 14685.45 1.36%
$KORS 190 59.23 11253.70 54.98 10446.20 -7.18%
$HOT 173 60.51 10468.23 60.14 10404.22 -0.61%
$CSCO 503 20.83 10477.49 20.61 10366.83 -1.06%
$GMCR 214 48.91 10466.74 53.23 11391.22 8.83%
$GE 452 23.19 10481.88 22.93 10364.36 -1.12%
$UPS 130 82.87 10773.10 83.54 10860.20 0.81%
$HD 152 69.03 10492.56 70.06 10649.12 1.49%
$CMCSA 262 40.03 10487.86 41.56 10888.72 3.82%
$BBY 610 17.16 10467.60 25.45 15524.50 48.31%
Cash 16.5 16.5
Totals 109874.76 115597.3 5.21%

 

Below is a list of stocks that will be in the Twitter Top 10 Portfolio as of the close tomorrow.  Notice that it varies slightly from the Most Bullish Monthly list created just two days ago.  This is just another reminder that mechanical investing strategies are fluid and results can vary widely simply based on the day you create the list and make purchases. Going forward I’ll show the new list on the first Friday of every month and update the prices after the close on Friday.

$BBY
$YHOO
$HOT
$NKE
$V
$F
$GMCR
$VMW
$UPS
$MU

 
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