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More on the Process of Tops

Over the past month I’ve been seeing signs of a market that might be in the process of putting in a longer term top.  Today something happened that often marks short term tops.  The S&P 500 Index closed down (SPX), Corporate Grade Bonds closed up (LQD), but High Yield or Junk Bonds closed down (JNK).  During a healthy stock market when investors are confident Junk Bonds generally move with Corporate Grade Bonds.  When investors get scared and start moving out of stocks and into bonds LQD (high quality bond) gets the money and moves up.  Scared investors also sell JNK with their stocks.  That’s what happened today.  Enough fear entered the market today to cause a spike in LQD and a drop in JNK.  One day doesn’t make a trend…but it can start one.  Keep an eye on LQD and JNK  for another warning that the market may be putting in a top.

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