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Reluctant Gains

Over the past week our Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose sharply. The rise was a result of bears giving up once SPX had a strong close above 1900. In fact the move in price caused the intensity of bearish tweets to drop by half. The bullish tweets didn’t increase much which signals that the bears aren’t turning bullish, merely stepping aside. Until the bears turn bullish the market won’t have the fuel to push prices significantly higher.

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Support and resistance levels are slowly moving up with the market. However, the break above 1900 on SPX still isn’t bringing with it substantially higher price projections from traders on Twitter. Most of the bullish tweets are clustered between 1925 and 1930, with some fun being had by bears stating the highs of the year will be 1929. There are also a few scattered tweets near the 2000 level. Below the market 1910 is the only significant support. This is further evidence that the bears have stepped aside as they’re not calling for prices to drop.

Every sector is showing positive sentiment readings. Over the past two years there have been several such instances and they all resulted in a short term top. It indicates that people are rotating into defensive stocks as the market pushes higher.  This suggests that some caution is warranted near term.

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Overall sentiment indicates that new gains will come slowly. The bulls can’t increase their numbers and the bears are refusing to play. Traders won’t commit themselves to higher prices and sector sentiment has a pattern of rotation to defensive stocks. Added all together and it suggest the market will continue its theme for 2014 where it makes a marginal new high then drifts sideways.

 
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